Top 5 Questions About Sunken Cost Fallacy Answered

Top 5 Questions About Sunken Cost Fallacy Answered

Every indie developer faces tough calls. Sometimes, the best move in game development is knowing when to fold a bad hand, even if you’ve invested heavily. It’s like a chess game where sacrificing a pawn can save your queen, or a poker game where you cut your losses on a weak hand. This is the essence of overcoming the sunken cost fallacy in game development.

I sat down with Alex, a seasoned indie developer known for his pragmatic approach. He’s seen projects through to success by making these hard decisions. “It’s all about strategic play,” Alex began, “not emotional attachment. You need to identify when an investment, whether time or money, is no longer yielding a positive return.”

1. When is a “Bad Hand” or “Lost Piece” Scenario Actually Happening?

“Recognizing the signs is step one,” Alex explained. “It’s easy to get tunnel vision.”

• Feature Creep: “I once spent weeks on a complex crafting system for an RPG,” Alex recalled. “It was over-scoped, didn’t add much, and diverted resources. It was a bad hand I kept playing, hoping it would improve.” The more features you add that don’t align with your core vision or player enjoyment, the more you dilute your game’s strength.
• Bug Fix Hell: “We had a persistent physics bug in an early build that just wouldn’t die,” he continued. “Months went into it. At some point, you have to ask if fixing this one bug is worth halting all other progress. Sometimes, it’s better to redesign the affected system or cut the feature entirely.” Pouring endless time into unfixable bugs can drain morale and resources, like sacrificing too many pieces to protect a single vulnerable one.
• Unpopular Mechanics: “Player feedback is your truth,” Alex stated. “If your core mechanic isn’t landing, even after iterations, you have to listen. I had a unique combat system in a previous game that players consistently found frustrating. Doubling down on it was a mistake; it was a lost piece I refused to acknowledge.” Ignoring player feedback on core gameplay elements is like playing a chess opening you know is flawed, simply because you started with it.
• Art Style Redo: “Changing an art style mid-development feels like a massive step back,” he admitted. “But if it’s not working, if it’s alienating players or doesn’t fit the game’s tone, continuing with it is worse. It’s a painful but necessary board reset.” Refusing to change a failing art direction can doom a project, much like refusing to reset the board when the initial setup is clearly disadvantageous.

2. Why Do We Cling to Failing Ideas?

“It’s psychological,” Alex emphasized. “Our brains trick us.”

• Fear of Wasted Effort/Time: “No one wants to feel like they wasted time or effort,” Alex said. “We think, ‘I’ve already put X hours into this; I can’t just abandon it now.’ But those hours are gone regardless. What matters is what you do moving forward.” This sunk cost fallacy is like stubbornly continuing a chess game you’re clearly losing, just because you’ve already invested so much time.
• Emotional Attachment to Ideas: “Developers are passionate, and we fall in love with our ideas,” he noted. “It’s hard to kill your darlings. But some darlings need to die for the project to live.” Your ideas are pawns; some must be sacrificed for the king (your game’s success).
• Over-Optimism (“It’ll Work Out Eventually”): “We tell ourselves, 'One more tweak, one more bug fix, and it’ll click,’” Alex explained. “Sometimes it does, but often, it’s just delaying the inevitable.” This is like assuming your opponent will make a mistake, rather than acknowledging your current strategic disadvantage.

3. What Strategic Moves Can Overcome This Fallacy?

“You need a playbook for this,” Alex advised. “Objective evaluation is key.”

• Objective Evaluation: How to "Assess the Board": “Set clear metrics for success from the start,” Alex urged. “For a feature, how many players actually use it? Does it improve retention? Get external feedback from playtesters who aren’t afraid to be brutally honest. Differentiate between short-term pain and long-term gain. Sometimes, cutting a feature now hurts, but it saves the whole project.” This means knowing your win conditions and objectively assessing your current position, just like a chess player analyzes the board without emotional bias.
• Setting “Stop-Loss” Points: “Before starting a new feature or tackling a major bug, define your ‘stop-loss’ point,” Alex recommended. “If after X hours or Y attempts it’s not working, you fold that hand. No exceptions.” This is your predetermined point to cut losses, like a poker player setting a limit on how much they’re willing to bet on a questionable hand.
• The Power of Prototyping and Iteration: “Embrace the idea that early ideas should be disposable,” Alex stated. “Prototype quickly, test, and if it doesn’t work, discard it. It’s cheaper to fail early than late.” This agile approach allows you to test many “openings” without committing fully, quickly discarding those that don’t yield an advantage.
• Celebrating "Fails": “Framing letting go as a strategic victory, not a defeat, is crucial for your mindset,” Alex shared. “You didn’t waste time; you learned. You optimized your resources by not throwing good money after bad. That’s a win.” A strategic retreat or sacrifice is not a failure; it is a calculated move to secure a greater victory.
• Post-Mortem for Micro-Decisions: “After you decide to cut a feature or pivot, do a mini-post-mortem,” Alex suggested. “What did you learn from it? How can you avoid a similar situation next time? Document these lessons.” This continuous learning process refines your strategic decision-making for future games.

4. How Can a Development Journal Help?

“This is where your development journal becomes indispensable,” Alex stressed. “It’s your strategic notepad.”

“When I make a decision, especially a tough one like cutting a feature, I document everything,” Alex explained. “I write down why I started the feature, the metrics I used to evaluate it, why it failed, and why I decided to cut it. This objective record helps fight off the emotional attachment later.” Your development journal helps you track your game development progress objectively.

“It’s also where I track my ‘stop-loss’ points,” he continued. “If I set a limit of 40 hours for a new system and hit it without success, my journal is the proof. It prevents me from rationalizing ‘just a few more hours.’ It’s my unbiased referee, helping me maintain consistency with devlogs.”

5. What’s the Ultimate Benefit of Overcoming This Fallacy?

“Ultimately, it improves your project’s chances of success and prevents burnout,” Alex concluded. “By objectively evaluating and knowing when to ‘fold a bad hand’ or ‘sacrifice a pawn,’ you conserve your most valuable resources: time and energy. This frees you up to invest in what truly matters and focus on the parts of your game that are working.”

“Think of your development journal as your strategic record book,” Alex added. “It helps you organize your creative process, track your game development progress, and learn from every decision. Start using it to document your thoughts, set your stop-loss points, and log your insights. It’s the single best tool for making truly strategic game development decisions and avoiding the pitfalls of emotional attachment.”